Aircraft Fleet Size Growth: Global Forecasts to 2044
The world's airlines are on course to fly roughly twice as many aircraft two decades from now as they do today. Yet the fleet is barely growing at the moment, and the jets already in service are the oldest they have ever been.
Fleet size decides how many seats exist, which routes get flown, and how quickly fares can fall when demand cools. When factories cannot build fast enough, airlines keep ageing jets in the air, delays and cancellations creep up, and the promise of cheaper travel stays just out of reach. The gap between the long-term forecast and the near-term reality is the story of aviation in 2026.
Key Aircraft Fleet Growth Statistics at a Glance
- Boeing expects the global commercial fleet to grow about 83 percent to roughly 49,600 aircraft by 2044, from about 27,150 in 2024.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044, June 2025 - Airbus sees the fleet growing to 45,550 aircraft by 2045, from 23,310 in 2025.
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2026-2045, July 2026 - Boeing forecasts demand for 43,600 new airplanes over 20 years, about half of them to replace older jets.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044, June 2025 - Airbus puts 20-year demand at 42,060 new aircraft, trimmed from 43,420 in its previous forecast.
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2026-2045, July 2026 - Cirium projects 46,500 deliveries worth about 3.4 trillion US dollars over the same two decades.
Source: Cirium Fleet Forecast 2025-2044, October 2025 - Single-aisle jets make up 33,285 of Boeing's 43,600 forecast deliveries, roughly 76 percent of the total.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044, June 2025 - Single-aisle aircraft will grow from 66 to 72 percent of the in-service fleet by 2044.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044, June 2025 - The passenger widebody fleet is set to nearly double, from about 4,400 to 8,320 aircraft by 2044.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044, June 2025 - Nearly half of Airbus deliveries, 19,820 aircraft, will simply replace older jets rather than expand fleets.
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2026-2045, July 2026 - Airbus and Boeing carried a combined order backlog of 15,461 aircraft at the end of 2025, about 11 years of output.
Source: Airbus and Boeing full-year 2025 orders and deliveries, January 2026 - The A320neo family alone accounts for 7,157 of Airbus's backlog, the 737 MAX for 4,867 of Boeing's.
Source: Airbus and Boeing full-year 2025 orders and deliveries, January 2026 - Airbus and Boeing delivered 1,393 jets in 2025 combined, still about 13 percent below the 2018 peak of 1,606.
Source: Airbus and Boeing full-year 2025 orders and deliveries, January 2026 - The average age of the global fleet hit a record 15 years in 2025, up from 13 years before the pandemic.
Source: IATA, The Global Commercial Aircraft Fleet, June 2025 - IATA counted 35,550 aircraft in mid-2025: 30,300 active and 5,250 in storage.
Source: IATA, The Global Commercial Aircraft Fleet, June 2025 - Emerging markets will hold more than half of the global fleet by 2044, up from nearly 40 percent in 2024.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044, June 2025 - Boeing is now cleared to build 47 737 MAX jets a month, while Airbus targets 70 to 75 A320neo family jets a month by the end of 2027.
Source: Boeing and FAA rate approval, May 2026; Airbus full-year 2025 results, February 2026
Every 20-year figure in this article is a forecast. Manufacturers revise these numbers each year, and the near-term delivery counts often fall short of the long-term math. Read the projections as direction, not certainty.
How Big the Fleet Gets
Start with the headline that anchors every forecast: the fleet roughly doubles. The two biggest planemakers count aircraft slightly differently, but they agree on the shape of the next two decades.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044 (published June 2025) and Airbus Global Market Forecast 2026-2045 (published July 2026). Boeing counts regional jets, single-aisle, widebody and freighters; Airbus counts passenger aircraft of 100 seats or more, which is why its totals sit lower. F = forecast.
Boeing sees the fleet, freighters included, climbing from about 27,150 aircraft in 2024 to roughly 49,600 by 2044, a rise of more than 80 percent. Airbus, using a narrower definition, tracks a rise from 23,310 to 45,550. The engine behind both curves is passenger demand, which Airbus expects to grow 3.9 percent a year and Boeing 4.2 percent, roughly doubling traffic by the mid-2040s. Our overview of airline passenger traffic shows why that traffic growth translates almost directly into aircraft orders.
The Forecasters Converge
When three independent teams model the same future, agreement is a useful signal. Boeing, Airbus and the aviation data firm Cirium each publish a 20-year delivery forecast, and they land remarkably close together.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044 (June 2025); Airbus Global Market Forecast 2026-2045 (July 2026); Cirium Fleet Forecast 2025-2044 (October 2025). All figures are 20-year forecasts of new deliveries.
The spread between the lowest estimate, Airbus at 42,060, and the highest, Cirium at 46,500, is about 10 percent. That is tight for a two-decade projection. The three houses use different methods and different regional maps, so their convergence on a range of roughly 42,000 to 46,500 new jets suggests the underlying demand is real, although the totals are not strictly comparable because Airbus leaves out the regional jets that Boeing counts. For the wider context, see our airline industry insights.
What Airlines Are Actually Buying
A doubling fleet is not spread evenly across aircraft types. The vast majority of new jets are single-aisle workhorses, the narrowbodies that fly short and medium routes for full-service and low-cost carriers alike.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044, June 2025. Figures are 20-year delivery forecasts by aircraft category.
Single-aisle jets account for 33,285 of the 43,600 forecast deliveries, about three in every four aircraft. Widebodies, the long-haul twin-aisle jets, follow at 7,815, with regional jets at 1,545 and dedicated freighters at 955. The dominance of narrowbodies reflects where growth is fastest: short-haul networks in emerging markets and the relentless expansion of low-cost flying. It also explains why a slow single-aisle production ramp, not widebody supply, is the main brake on fleet growth right now.
Flight delayed or cancelled by your airline?Aircraft shortages mean tighter schedules and more disruption. A delay can be worth up to 600 euros per passenger. Check your flight in two minutes.Check compensation
Every Segment Grows, But Not Equally
Because the fleet nearly doubles, almost every category expands in raw numbers. The interesting question is how the mix shifts. Widebodies nearly double too, yet their share of the fleet barely moves, because single-aisle jets grow even faster.
Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044, June 2025. Segment fleet counts from Boeing's CMO 2025 fleet tables; regional jets and freighters combined. F = forecast.
The single-aisle fleet grows from about 18,000 to about 35,600 aircraft, lifting its share from 66 to 72 percent. The passenger widebody fleet climbs from about 4,400 to 8,320, a near-doubling in its own right, even though its slice of the total stays around one in six. Regional jets and freighters make up the rest. The takeaway for travellers is that the extra capacity of the 2040s will mostly appear on short and medium routes, not on long-haul.
Growth Versus Replacement
Not every new jet adds a seat to the market. A large share of orders exists simply to retire older, thirstier aircraft. Airbus splits its 20-year demand into the two motives, and the balance is telling.
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2026-2045, July 2026. Growth aircraft expand the fleet; replacement aircraft retire older jets.
Of the 42,060 aircraft Airbus expects the world to need, 22,240 are for growth and 19,820, roughly 47 percent, are replacements. That replacement wave matters for emissions and cost: the latest single-aisle jets burn 15 to 20 percent less fuel than the models they retire, which is why fleet renewal is central to the industry's efficiency plans. Our look at airline fuel consumption shows how much that renewal can move the needle. Right now, though, retirements are running near record lows because airlines cannot get the new jets fast enough to release the old ones.
A Record Backlog
Demand is not the constraint. Airlines have already ordered far more aircraft than the factories can build for a decade. The backlog is the clearest measure of that pent-up demand.
Source: Airbus and Boeing full-year 2025 orders and deliveries, reported January 2026. Airbus backlog excludes the A320ceo; Boeing backlog excludes the 777-300ER.
At the end of 2025 Airbus held a backlog of 8,748 aircraft and Boeing 6,713, a combined 15,461 jets on firm order. At current output that is roughly 11 years of production for each maker before a single new order is filled. The concentration is striking: the A320neo family accounts for 7,157 of Airbus's total and the 737 MAX for 4,867 of Boeing's, so two narrowbody families represent the bulk of the world's aircraft order book.
Why the Fleet Is Not Growing Faster
With demand booked years out, the only thing separating airlines from bigger fleets is the ability to build jets. On that measure, 2025 was better than the recent past but still short of the industry's own peak.
Source: Airbus and Boeing annual commercial delivery totals, compiled by AirAdvisor from each maker's monthly reports (2018 to 2025).
Combined deliveries peaked at 1,606 aircraft in 2018, collapsed to 723 in 2020 as the pandemic and the 737 MAX grounding hit at once, and clawed back to 1,393 in 2025. That recovery still leaves output about 13 percent below the 2018 record. Supply-chain shortages, engine delays and quality problems have all capped the ramp. Boeing won FAA approval in May 2026 to raise 737 MAX output to 47 jets a month, while Airbus is aiming for 70 to 75 A320neo family jets a month by the end of 2027. IATA does not expect the aircraft shortage to normalise before 2031 to 2034.
An Ageing Fleet in the Meantime
The consequence of slow delivery is written on the jets you already fly. Because airlines cannot replace old aircraft on schedule, the global fleet keeps getting older.
Source: IATA, The Global Commercial Aircraft Fleet, June 2025. Average age of the active in-service commercial fleet.
The average age of the world's commercial jets reached 15 years in 2025, the oldest in aviation history and up from about 13 years before the pandemic. IATA counts 35,550 aircraft in total, of which 30,300 are active and 5,250 sit in storage. Newer, more efficient models made up just 26 percent of the fleet in 2024, up from 11 percent in 2019, so the modernisation is real but slow. For passengers, an older fleet means more maintenance-driven delays and a slower path to the quieter, cleaner cabins the newest jets provide. See our passenger airlines statistics for how this feeds through to reliability.
Outlook
The long-term picture is unusually clear: a fleet that roughly doubles by the mid-2040s, dominated by single-aisle jets, with emerging markets holding more than half of all aircraft. The near-term picture is the opposite of clear. A record backlog, a slow production ramp and the oldest fleet on record all point to a market where demand is booked years ahead but capacity arrives late. For travellers, that tension keeps fares firm and schedules tight until the factories catch up, which IATA does not expect before the early 2030s.
Know your rights when flights go wrongOlder fleets and tight schedules mean more delays and cancellations. If your flight was disrupted, you could be owed up to 600 euros.Check your flight
References and Sources
- Boeing. Commercial Market Outlook 2025-2044. Published June 2025. boeing.com
- Airbus. Global Market Forecast 2026-2045. Published July 2026. airbus.com
- Cirium Ascend Consultancy. Fleet Forecast 2025-2044. Published October 2025. cirium.com
- IATA. The Global Commercial Aircraft Fleet: Shortages Cap Growth. Published August 2025 (fleet data as of June 2025). iata.org
- Forecast International, Flight Plan. Airbus and Boeing Full-Year 2025 Orders and Deliveries. Published January 2026. forecastinternational.com
- Boeing. 20-Year Forecast Shows Steady Demand for Nearly 44,000 New Airplanes. Press release, June 2025. boeing.mediaroom.com
- Airbus. Global Market Forecast 2025-2044. Published June 2025 (prior-year comparison). airbus.com
Methodology Note
This article draws on publicly available data from Boeing, Airbus, Cirium and IATA, plus the manufacturers' audited monthly orders and deliveries. The two long-term outlooks count aircraft differently: Boeing includes regional jets, single-aisle, widebody and freighter aircraft, while Airbus counts only passenger aircraft of about 100 seats or more, so Airbus totals are consistently lower and are not directly comparable to Boeing's. Segment fleet counts in the 2024 versus 2044 comparison come from Boeing's published CMO 2025 fleet tables (2024 fleet of 27,150 including 2,375 freighters; 2044 fleet of 49,640). Annual delivery figures are combined Airbus and Boeing commercial totals from each maker's monthly reports. Forecast years are labelled F on charts and in source lines; 2025 delivery and fleet-age figures are reported actuals. Backlog and delivery figures are as of year-end 2025. All forecasts are subject to annual revision.
Author:
Amy LancelotteJob/Position: Senior Writer & Content Strategist
Amy Lancelotte is a Senior Content Writer and editorial contributor at AirAdvisor with over seven years of experience producing research-based articles for international audiences. Her work focuses on travel, aviation, and air passenger rights, with an emphasis on factual accuracy, verified data, and clear, reader-first explanations.
Flight Compensation Calculator:
Check if you are entitled to flight delay compensation in just 3 minutes.
