Short-haul cancellations are rising across Europe, and airlines cannot blame the fuel price
Short-haul cancellations across Europe are rising fast, and fuel prices aren't to blame. Here's what's driving the disruption and what passengers can claim.
Short-haul cancellations have risen sharply across 18 European airports since the start of 2026, concentrated on the budget routes where rising fuel costs land hardest. On 8 May, the European Commission made clear that this does not change what passengers are owed: fuel price volatility is a normal commercial risk, not an extraordinary circumstance, so airlines cannot use it to avoid paying compensation.
AirAdvisor analysed flight performance at those 18 airports between 28 February and 14 May 2026. The data shows where disruption is most severe, which routes face the greatest risk this summer, and why the pattern is likely to continue through the peak season.
If your flight has already been affected, you can check whether you are eligible for compensation in under two minutes.
Why airlines are cutting and delaying flights right now
Airlines are expected to spend around $282 billion on jet fuel in 2026, according to IATA. That is roughly ten times what the entire airline industry earned in net profit in 2023. Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since early 2026, following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, and at that scale of cost increase, something has to give.
Whether any individual airline is feeling the pressure yet depends on whether it locked in its fuel prices months in advance. Some airlines buy contracts well ahead of time that fix the price they pay, regardless of what happens in the market. Those airlines have some protection for now, but those that didn’t buy contracts are now absorbing the full price increase. Most budget carriers fall into this second group.
When airlines need to cut costs fast, short-haul leisure routes are the first to go. These flights earn the least money relative to the fuel they burn, and budget carriers, which run most of the UK-Europe holiday routes, already have thinner margins and higher disruption rates than traditional carriers in normal conditions. That gap widens further when fuel costs spike. The disruption is already showing up in the data even ahead of the summer travel season.
Where the flight disruptions are landing across Europe
London Heathrow had a delay rate of 6.26% this spring, compared to 2.52% in the same period of 2025. That’s a 148% increase and the sharpest year-on-year rise of any major hub in the analysis. When delays happen at Heathrow, passengers wait an average of 118 minutes. The airport also recorded 278 short-haul cancellations.
The worst-hit routes for British passengers are those to Spain
Palma de Mallorca's overall delay rate more than doubled year-on-year, from 3.66% to 7.60%.
At Alicante-Elche, it nearly tripled, from 4.39% to 11.73% with roughly one in nine departures running at least an hour late. The average delay for a flight already running an hour behind at departure was 124 minutes, so many passengers on those routes arrived at their destination more than three hours late, which meets the threshold for a UK261 compensation claim.
Where cancellations are actually rising
Bucharest Henri Coandă Airport recorded a 30-fold increase in flight cancellations year-on-year, from 0.10% to 3.16% on a similar number of total scheduled flights.
More than 64% of those cancelled flights were on routes to Western Europe, specifically London, Paris, Brussels, and Frankfurt. Those are the connections most used by Romania's large diaspora population. Most of these routes fall in the 1,500 and 3,500 kilometres range, which means that affected passengers would potentially qualify for €400 in compensation under EU261.
Across eight major European airports where we have route-length data, 1,436 of 2,395 total recorded cancellationsfall on short-haul routes under 1,500 kilometres. These are the routes that cost airlines the most to operate relative to the fares passengers pay. They’re also the first ones airlines cut when costs rise.
The 3 best performing airports
Stockholm Arlanda, Warsaw Chopin, and Helsinki Vantaa are the three best-performing airports in the analysis on both delay and cancellation rates. For passengers in those markets, though, the greater risk lies at the Western European hubs they connect through, where disruption levels are significantly higher.
AirAdvisor European Airport Disruption Monitor: Spring 2026
All delay rates at the 60-minute departure threshold (LD60+). Cancellation rate = cancelled as % of total scheduled flights. Short-haul cancellations = routes under 1,500 km.
Airport | IATA | Delay rate | Avg delay | Cancellation rate | Short-haul cancellations | Disruption tier |
Alicante-Elche | ALC | 11.73% | 124 min | 0.40% | 58 | HIGH |
Palma de Mallorca | PMI | 7.60% | 104 min | 0.39% | 116 | HIGH |
LIS | 6.74% | 88 min | 0.64% | 59 | ELEVATED | |
Madrid Barajas | MAD | 6.29% | 98 min | 0.40% | 45 | ELEVATED |
London Heathrow | LHR | 6.26% | 118 min | 1.91% | 278 | ELEVATED |
BCN | 5.25% | 121 min | 0.59% | 53 | ELEVATED | |
MXP | 5.18% | 120 min | 1.09% | 33 | ELEVATED | |
Naples Capodichino | NAP | 2.52% | 115 min | 2.27% | 44 | ELEVATED |
Porto | OPO | 4.25% | 102 min | 0.90% | 42 | MODERATE |
CDG | 3.57% | 109 min | 0.51% | 90 | MODERATE | |
Bucharest Henri Coandă | OTP | 2.90% | 124 min | 3.16% | 214 | HIGH |
Frankfurt Main | FRA | 2.99% | 107 min | 0.92% | 145 | MODERATE |
FCO | 2.82% | 104 min | 1.36% | 137 | MODERATE | |
AMS | 1.96% | 98 min | 1.35% | 221 | MODERATE | |
Oslo Gardermoen | OSL | 1.42% | 104 min | 1.93% | 65 | MODERATE |
Stockholm Arlanda | ARN | 1.01% | 91 min | 0.60% | 27 | LOW |
WAW | 1.07% | 90 min | 0.16% | 6 | LOW | |
Helsinki Vantaa | HEL | 0.95% | 83 min | 0.93% | 31 | LOW |
Source: AirAdvisor proprietary flight performance database, 28 February to 14 May 2026 vs same period 2025.
What the European Commission confirmed on 8 May
On 8 May 2026, the European Commission published formal guidance on passenger rights in the context of the current fuel crisis. They found that fluctuating fuel prices are a normal commercial risk that airlines are expected to manage.
For passengers, this means that rising fuel costsdo not count as an extraordinary circumstanceunder EU261. In other words, airlines that cancel or delay a flight because it has become too expensive to operate cannot use that as grounds to refuse you compensation.
The guidance confirmed that passengers whose flights are cancelled keep their full right to a refund, a replacement flight, care at the airport, and compensation of up to €600. Airlines also cannot add fuel surcharges to tickets after they have already been purchased. The price you paid when you booked is the price that stands.
UK261, the British equivalent of the same regulation, applies the same standard. Passengers departing from UK airports have the same protections, and fuel costs cannot be used to deny a UK261 claim any more than an EU261 one.
What are you owed if your flight is cancelled or delayed?
If your flight departs from a UK airport and arrives at its destination three or more hours late for a controllable reason, you may be entitled to compensation based on the distance of the route.
- For short-haul flights under 1,500 kilometres, the figure is £220 (€250) per person.
- For medium-haul routes between 1,500 and 3,500 kilometres, it rises to £350 (€400).
- For long-haul flights over 3,500 kilometres, the maximum is £520 (€600).
Flights cancelled within 14 days of departure for a controllable reason carry the same entitlement.
In England and Wales, you have six years from the date of the disruption to submit a claim. In Scotland, the limit is five years. Knowing your rights before you travel is always more useful than finding out afterwards.
While you are at the airport, airlines are legally required to provide meals and refreshments once a delay reaches two hours, and accommodation and transfers if you are stranded overnight. These obligations apply regardless of the reason the airline gives for the disruption.
Find out if you are owed compensation for a disrupted flightCheck Your Flight
How to protect your rights this summer
If your flight is delayed or cancelled, keep your boarding pass, booking confirmation, any delay notification you receive from the airline, and receipts for anything you pay for at the airport. These are the documents that support a claim.
If the airline tells you the disruption was caused by extraordinary circumstances, ask for that explanation in writing before you leave the airport. The 8 May guidance makes clear that rising fuel costs do not qualify, and a vague verbal explanation carries no legal weight.
Before accepting any voucher or rebooking offer at the airport, check that it does not affect your right to cash compensation. Some offers are structured to replace rather than supplement compensation, so accept the help you need in the moment but submit a separate claim through AirAdvisor afterwards.
Tip: ask for it in writing
If an airline representative tells you verbally that your delay was caused by "extraordinary circumstances", "fuel costs", or "operational pressures", ask them to confirm that in writing before you leave the airport. Written explanations are far harder for airlines to contradict at the claims stage.
Full data on airline fuel spend is available in AirAdvisor's global fuel consumption analysis at airadvisor.com/en/statistics/airline-fuel-consumption.
Before you fly this summer
Heathrow's delay rate is up 148 per cent year-on-year before the summer peak has even started. Spain's two most popular UK-facing leisure airports are already running at more than double their normal disruption levels. Budget carriers, which dominate the UK-Spain routes, have the least protection against further fuel price increases in the months ahead.
None of this changes what passengers are owed. Disruption driven by cost pressure or commercial difficulty does not suspend your entitlement to compensation, and the European Commission confirmed that in writing on 8 May. The same standard applies under UK261.
The most practical preparation you can make is knowing your rights before disruption happens, keeping the right documents if it does, and understanding that a delayed or cancelled flight is where a compensation claim begins, not ends.
Methodology
AirAdvisor analysed flight performance data from its proprietary AirData operational database across 18 European airports for the period 28 February to 14 May 2026, compared with the equivalent window of 2025.
All delay figures use a 60-minute departure threshold (LD60+). Distance bands follow EC261/2004 thresholds. Fuel economics data is sourced from IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry 2024. The legal reference for the European Commission guidance is: DG MOVE, 8 May 2026, guidance on passenger rights in the context of reduced jet fuel supply from the Middle East (transport.ec.europa.eu). Full data tables and extended methodology are available on request.
Sources:
AirAdvisor proprietary flight performance database
European Commission DG MOVE (8 May 2026)
IATA Financial Monitor 2010 to 2024
Airline annual reports 2024
Author:
Joanna Teljeur
Job/Position: Senior Editor & Content Lead
Joanna Teljeur is a senior editor and writer with 15+ years of experience in editorial leadership, journalism, and content development, specialising in consumer rights, aviation law, and public-interest reporting. Her work focuses on transforming complex regulatory and legal topics into clear, accurate, and accessible content for international audiences.
